Home Affordability SimulatorBuy the house without giving up early retirement

What salary do you need to afford a $650K house?

About $280K of household income — the lowest income at which buying at $650K still leaves 85% of simulated futures on track for financial independence by 60. That comes from a Monte Carlo simulation — 1,000 thirty-year futures with market crashes, job losses that cluster in downturns, real federal/state/FICA taxes, and the full carrying cost of owning — solved in reverse: the model walks income down until the purchase stops grading Comfortable.

≈$280Khousehold income where a $650K purchase grades comfortable
2.3×price-to-income multiple the simulation lands on — an output, not a rule
$4,539/moall-in ownership cost: mortgage, tax, insurance, upkeep
$159,043cash to close at 20% down

Run this with your own savings and spending →

Why this is higher than the classic salary rules

Invert the 28% payment rule and a $650K house looks affordable on much less than $280,000. But the payment is only part of the cost — $4,539 a month all-in here, which is 19.5% of gross income — and the rule can't see what the purchase does to the rest of the plan. The simulation checks whether the cash left after housing, taxes, and spending still compounds into enough invested assets to retire by 60 across 1,000 market histories, including the ones where a crash and a layoff land together. 0% of futures at this income still end in a forced sale; below it, the odds slip past the model's guardrails.

The required income also isn't a fixed multiple of the price. At $650K it works out to 2.3× — but the same house needs meaningfully less income from a household with double the savings, and meaningfully more from one that spends heavily or wants to retire early. State taxes move it too: see the salary the median home takes in every state for how much.

The illustrative household — married filing jointly, age 35, $8,000/mo non-housing spending (capped at $8,000/mo — above that, extra income becomes savings rather than lifestyle), $180K taxable savings sized to fund closing, $405K in retirement accounts, 20% down at 6.3% for 30 years, a flat 5% effective state tax, retirement target age 60. Income solved to the nearest $5,000; fixed random seed; deterministic. If your numbers differ — they do — use the button above.

Common questions

Is $280K gross or take-home pay?

Gross household income, before taxes — the simulation computes federal, FICA, and a 5% effective state income tax itself, filing as married filing jointly. It's also household income, not one earner's: a couple earning it together and a single earner at $280K get the same answer here.

What does "afford" mean on this page?

Something stricter than mortgage approval: at $280K, at least 85% of 1,000 simulated 30-year futures — including the ones with market crashes and layoffs that arrive together — still reach financial independence by age 60, and fewer than 5% end in a forced sale. A lender would approve a $650K purchase on considerably less income than this.

Can I buy a $650K house on less than $280K?

Often, yes — this number is for an illustrative household that spends 35% of gross income outside housing and wants the option to retire by 60. Bring a bigger down payment, lower spending, or a later retirement target and the required income falls. The "on a specific salary" pages below show the odds at lower incomes, and the planner recomputes the answer for your exact situation.

What does a $650K house cost per month?

About $4,539 all-in for this scenario — $3,202 of principal and interest at 6.3%, plus property tax, insurance, and maintenance. Cash needed at closing is roughly $159,043 at 20% down.

This house on a specific salary

Other price points

Or flip the question — how much house does your salary afford — see how your state's taxes move the answer, or read why the 28% rule misleads.