Home Affordability SimulatorBuy the house without giving up early retirement

The salary you need to afford the median home, state by state

Every number below is a simulation, not a payment ratio: the lowest household income at which buying the state's typical home still leaves at least 85% of 1,000 simulated futures on track for financial independence by age 60 — with market crashes, layoffs that cluster in downturns, the full cost of owning, and each state's actual 2025 income tax modeled. It is a deliberately conservative standard: what you can buy without giving up retiring on time, which is a different and harder question than what a lender will approve.

$310Ksalary the median Hawaii home takes — the nation's steepest
$60Ksalary that comfortably carries the median West Virginia home
$125Krequired salary in the median state — versus a national median household income near $83K
6 of 51states where the median household income comfortably buys the median home

All fifty states and D.C., ranked

#StateTypical home (2025)Salary neededHome ÷ salaryAll-in monthly cost
1Hawaii$850,000$310K2.7×$5,874/mo
2California$790,000$300K2.6×$5,474/mo
3Washington, D.C.$720,000$300K2.4×$5,007/mo
4Massachusetts$650,000$280K2.3×$4,539/mo
5Oregon$500,000$260K1.9×$3,538/mo
6New Jersey$550,000$240K2.3×$3,872/mo
7Colorado$550,000$235K2.3×$3,872/mo
8Utah$530,000$225K2.4×$3,738/mo
9Washington$600,000$215K2.8×$4,205/mo
10New York$480,000$200K2.4×$3,404/mo
11Idaho$460,000$195K2.4×$3,271/mo
12Montana$470,000$195K2.4×$3,338/mo
13Rhode Island$480,000$195K2.5×$3,404/mo
14Connecticut$420,000$170K2.5×$3,004/mo
15Maryland$430,000$170K2.5×$3,071/mo
16New Hampshire$500,000$170K2.9×$3,538/mo
17Delaware$390,000$155K2.5×$2,804/mo
18Maine$400,000$155K2.6×$2,870/mo
19Vermont$410,000$155K2.6×$2,937/mo
20Virginia$400,000$155K2.6×$2,870/mo
21Arizona$430,000$150K2.9×$3,071/mo
22Nevada$460,000$150K3.1×$3,271/mo
23Florida$410,000$130K3.2×$2,937/mo
24Minnesota$350,000$130K2.7×$2,537/mo
25Alaska$380,000$125K3.0×$2,737/mo
26Georgia$330,000$125K2.6×$2,403/mo
27North Carolina$330,000$120K2.8×$2,403/mo
28South Carolina$300,000$115K2.6×$2,203/mo
29Texas$340,000$115K3.0×$2,470/mo
30Wisconsin$300,000$115K2.6×$2,203/mo
31Wyoming$350,000$115K3.0×$2,537/mo
32Illinois$270,000$105K2.6×$2,002/mo
33Nebraska$290,000$105K2.8×$2,136/mo
34New Mexico$300,000$105K2.9×$2,203/mo
35Tennessee$320,000$105K3.0×$2,336/mo
36Pennsylvania$270,000$100K2.7×$2,002/mo
37South Dakota$300,000$100K3.0×$2,203/mo
38Indiana$250,000$95K2.6×$1,869/mo
39Michigan$250,000$95K2.6×$1,869/mo
40Missouri$250,000$95K2.6×$1,869/mo
41North Dakota$290,000$95K3.1×$2,136/mo
42Alabama$230,000$90K2.6×$1,735/mo
43Iowa$225,000$90K2.5×$1,702/mo
44Kansas$230,000$90K2.6×$1,735/mo
45Ohio$240,000$90K2.7×$1,802/mo
46Kentucky$210,000$80K2.6×$1,602/mo
47Arkansas$210,000$75K2.8×$1,602/mo
48Louisiana$200,000$75K2.7×$1,535/mo
49Oklahoma$210,000$75K2.8×$1,602/mo
50Mississippi$180,000$70K2.6×$1,402/mo
51West Virginia$170,000$60K2.8×$1,335/mo

Run your own numbers — every assumption adjustable →

How to read the spread

The gap between West Virginia ($60K) and Hawaii ($310K) is about 5.2× — wider than the gap in home prices alone, because taxes and carrying costs compound the difference. Note the "home ÷ salary" column: under a standard that protects your retirement date, the sustainable multiple runs from 1.9× in Oregon to 3.2× in Florida — and only a handful of low-tax states tolerate even 3×. The folk rule that you can afford three and a half to four times your salary appears nowhere: carrying costs, taxes, and sequence-of-returns risk eat that headroom long before the sticker price does.

State income tax quietly reorders the middle of the table. The cleanest example: Oregon's typical home costs less than Colorado's or New Jersey's, yet it demands a higher salary — the steepest income tax in the study working against the saver every year. It's the only state whose sustainable multiple falls below 2×. The no-income-tax states run the same effect in reverse, punching consistently above their price level.

Method. For each state, a binary search over household income finds the lowest salary where the state's typical home grades Comfortable: ≥85% of 1,000 simulated 30-year futures reach financial independence by age 60 and fewer than 5% end in a forced sale (~460 full simulations across the study, fixed seed, deterministic). The illustrative household: married filing jointly, age 35, 20% down at 6.25% for 30 years, savings sized to fund closing, non-housing spending 35% of gross capped at $8,000/mo (past the cap, extra income becomes savings — without a cap the retirement target would chase the salary), property tax held at 1.1% of value, each state's 2025 effective income tax applied at every candidate salary. Home values are approximate mid-2025 typical values (Zillow-index vintage), rounded; salaries rounded up to $5K. Illustration for comparing states — not a verdict on any real household, and not financial advice.

Common questions

What does “afford” mean here?

Something much stricter than a lender's approval: a purchase is "comfortable" when at least 85% of 1,000 simulated 30-year futures — including the ones with market crashes and layoffs — still reach financial independence by age 60, and fewer than 5% end in a forced sale. A bank will happily lend you more than these numbers; this study asks what you can carry without giving up retiring on time.

Why do these salaries look higher than other affordability tables?

Most tables invert the 28% payment rule and stop. This one simulates taxes (federal, FICA, and each state's actual 2025 income tax), maintenance, insurance, property tax, market risk, and job loss correlated with downturns — and then requires the plan to survive them. The price of that honesty is bigger numbers; the reward is that they mean something.

Where does the national median household income (~$83K) get you?

6 of the 51 jurisdictions studied have a typical home that grades comfortable at or below the national median household income: West Virginia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky. Everywhere else, the median home requires an above-median income to buy without touching your retirement timeline.

Are these numbers a verdict on my household?

No — they're one illustrative household (dual-income-scale, 20% down, savings sized to fund closing, retirement target 60) moved from state to state so the comparison is apples-to-apples. Your savings, spending, and timeline move your number substantially in both directions — the planner recomputes it for your actual situation in about a second, in your browser.

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