Home Affordability SimulatorBuy the house without giving up early retirement

The salary you need to afford the median home, state by state

Every number below is a simulation, not a payment ratio: the lowest household income at which buying the state's typical home still leaves at least 85% of 1,000 simulated futures on track for financial independence by age 60 — with market crashes, layoffs that cluster in downturns, the full cost of owning, and each state's actual 2025 income tax modeled. It is a deliberately conservative standard: what you can buy without giving up retiring on time, which is a different and harder question than what a lender will approve.

$345Ksalary the median Hawaii home takes — the nation's steepest
$95Ksalary that comfortably carries the median West Virginia home
$195Krequired salary in the median state — versus a national median household income near $83K
0 of 51states where the median household income comfortably buys the median home

All fifty states and D.C., ranked

#StateTypical home (2025)Salary neededHome ÷ salaryAll-in monthly cost
1Hawaii$850,000$345K2.5×$5,874/mo
2California$790,000$340K2.3×$5,474/mo
3Washington, D.C.$720,000$330K2.2×$5,007/mo
4Massachusetts$650,000$315K2.1×$4,539/mo
5Oregon$500,000$305K1.6×$3,538/mo
6Colorado$550,000$300K1.8×$3,872/mo
7New Jersey$550,000$300K1.8×$3,872/mo
8Utah$530,000$300K1.8×$3,738/mo
9New York$480,000$295K1.6×$3,404/mo
10Washington$600,000$295K2.0×$4,205/mo
11Idaho$460,000$290K1.6×$3,271/mo
12Montana$470,000$290K1.6×$3,338/mo
13Rhode Island$480,000$290K1.7×$3,404/mo
14Connecticut$420,000$285K1.5×$3,004/mo
15Maine$400,000$285K1.4×$2,870/mo
16Maryland$430,000$285K1.5×$3,071/mo
17Delaware$390,000$280K1.4×$2,804/mo
18New Hampshire$500,000$280K1.8×$3,538/mo
19Vermont$410,000$280K1.5×$2,937/mo
20Virginia$400,000$280K1.4×$2,870/mo
21Arizona$430,000$265K1.6×$3,071/mo
22Nevada$460,000$260K1.8×$3,271/mo
23Minnesota$350,000$245K1.4×$2,537/mo
24Florida$410,000$215K1.9×$2,937/mo
25Georgia$330,000$215K1.5×$2,403/mo
26Alaska$380,000$195K1.9×$2,737/mo
27North Carolina$330,000$195K1.7×$2,403/mo
28South Carolina$300,000$195K1.5×$2,203/mo
29New Mexico$300,000$175K1.7×$2,203/mo
30Wisconsin$300,000$175K1.7×$2,203/mo
31Illinois$270,000$170K1.6×$2,002/mo
32Nebraska$290,000$170K1.7×$2,136/mo
33Texas$340,000$170K2.0×$2,470/mo
34Wyoming$350,000$170K2.1×$2,537/mo
35Tennessee$320,000$155K2.1×$2,336/mo
36Pennsylvania$270,000$150K1.8×$2,002/mo
37Michigan$250,000$145K1.7×$1,869/mo
38South Dakota$300,000$145K2.1×$2,203/mo
39Missouri$250,000$135K1.9×$1,869/mo
40North Dakota$290,000$135K2.1×$2,136/mo
41Alabama$230,000$130K1.8×$1,735/mo
42Indiana$250,000$130K1.9×$1,869/mo
43Kansas$230,000$130K1.8×$1,735/mo
44Iowa$225,000$125K1.8×$1,702/mo
45Ohio$240,000$125K1.9×$1,802/mo
46Arkansas$210,000$115K1.8×$1,602/mo
47Kentucky$210,000$115K1.8×$1,602/mo
48Oklahoma$210,000$115K1.8×$1,602/mo
49Louisiana$200,000$105K1.9×$1,535/mo
50Mississippi$180,000$105K1.7×$1,402/mo
51West Virginia$170,000$95K1.8×$1,335/mo

Run your own numbers — every assumption adjustable →

How to read the spread

The gap between West Virginia ($95K) and Hawaii ($345K) is about 3.6× — wider than the gap in home prices alone, because taxes and carrying costs compound the difference. Note the "home ÷ salary" column: under a standard that protects your retirement date, the sustainable multiple runs from 1.4× in Delaware to 2.5× in Hawaii — and only a handful of low-tax states tolerate even 3×. The folk rule that you can afford three and a half to four times your salary appears nowhere: carrying costs, taxes, and sequence-of-returns risk eat that headroom long before the sticker price does.

State income tax quietly reorders the middle of the table. The cleanest example: Oregon's typical home costs less than Colorado's or New Jersey's, yet it demands a higher salary — the steepest income tax in the study working against the saver every year. It's the only state whose sustainable multiple falls below 2×. The no-income-tax states run the same effect in reverse, punching consistently above their price level.

Method. For each state, a binary search over household income finds the lowest salary where the state's typical home grades Comfortable: ≥85% of 1,000 simulated 30-year futures reach financial independence by age 60 and fewer than 5% end in a forced sale (~460 full simulations across the study, fixed seed, deterministic). The illustrative household: married filing jointly, age 35, 20% down at 6.25% for 30 years, savings sized to fund closing, non-housing spending 35% of gross capped at $8,000/mo (past the cap, extra income becomes savings — without a cap the retirement target would chase the salary), property tax held at 1.1% of value, each state's 2025 effective income tax applied at every candidate salary. Home values are approximate mid-2025 typical values (Zillow-index vintage), rounded; salaries rounded up to $5K. Illustration for comparing states — not a verdict on any real household, and not financial advice.

Common questions

What does “afford” mean here?

Something much stricter than a lender's approval: a purchase is "comfortable" when at least 85% of 1,000 simulated 30-year futures — including the ones with market crashes and layoffs — still reach financial independence by age 60, and fewer than 5% end in a forced sale. A bank will happily lend you more than these numbers; this study asks what you can carry without giving up retiring on time.

Why do these salaries look higher than other affordability tables?

Most tables invert the 28% payment rule and stop. This one simulates taxes (federal, FICA, and each state's actual 2025 income tax), maintenance, insurance, property tax, market risk, and job loss correlated with downturns — and then requires the plan to survive them. The price of that honesty is bigger numbers; the reward is that they mean something.

Where does the national median household income (~$83K) get you?

0 of the 51 jurisdictions studied have a typical home that grades comfortable at or below the national median household income: . Everywhere else, the median home requires an above-median income to buy without touching your retirement timeline.

Are these numbers a verdict on my household?

No — they're one illustrative household (dual-income-scale, 20% down, savings sized to fund closing, retirement target 60) moved from state to state so the comparison is apples-to-apples. Your savings, spending, and timeline move your number substantially in both directions — the planner recomputes it for your actual situation in about a second, in your browser.

Go deeper