Home Affordability SimulatorBuy the house without giving up early retirement

Can I afford a $800K house on a $250K salary?

Risky

It's risky — only 69% of simulated futures reach financial independence by 60 at this price; about $590K is where this household's odds turn Comfortable. That answer comes from a Monte Carlo simulation — thousands of futures with market crashes, job losses that cluster in downturns, real federal/state/FICA taxes, and the full carrying cost of owning — not from a payment-to-income ratio.

69%of simulated futures reach financial independence by 60
$5,541/moall-in ownership cost, not just the mortgage payment
$195,745cash needed at closing (20% down + costs)
Age 57median future's financial-independence age at this price

Adjust every assumption to match your life →

What the ratio rules can't see

At $250,000 of household income, a $800K purchase means $5,541 per month of true ownership cost — 26.6% of gross income. A classic 28% rule would bless that number and stop there. The simulation keeps going: it checks whether the cash left after housing, taxes, and spending still compounds into enough invested assets — about $3.31M in today's dollars for this household's spending — before age 60, across 1,000 different market histories, including the ones where a crash and a layoff arrive together. 0% of futures at this price end in a forced sale.

The illustrative household — married filing jointly, age 35, $250,000 gross income, $7,300/mo non-housing spending (35% of gross, the planner's default ratio), $225K taxable savings sized to fund closing, $300K pre-tax and $65K Roth retirement balances, saving $47.5K/yr toward retirement. 20% down at 6.3% for 30 years, a 5% effective state tax, retirement target age 60. Fixed random seed; deterministic. If your numbers differ — they do — use the button above.

Common questions

What does the 69% number actually mean?

The model simulates 1,000 possible 30-year futures — different market returns, home prices, and job-loss timing, drawn from the assumptions listed on this page. In 69% of them, a household like this one that buys at $800,000 still accumulates enough invested assets to retire by 60. It is a property of the scenario, not a guarantee.

What monthly cost does a $800K house really carry?

About $5,541 per month all-in for this scenario: $3,941 of principal and interest at 6.3%, plus property tax, insurance, maintenance, and PMI where applicable — the number a payment calculator shows is only part of it. Cash needed at closing is roughly $195,745.

Is the 28% rule a better guide?

Payment-to-income rules can't see savings rates, taxes, market risk, or your retirement timeline — two households with identical payments can have wildly different odds of staying on track. That's why this page reports simulated outcomes instead. See the guide "Why the 28% rule misleads" for the full argument.

Same salary, different price

Same price, different salary

Or browse every price and salary combination, start from how much house a $250K salary affords, see how your state's taxes move these odds, or read why the 28% rule misleads.