Home Affordability SimulatorBuy the house without giving up early retirement

Can I afford a $300K house on a $200K salary?

Comfortable

Yes, comfortably — in 94% of simulated futures this purchase still reaches financial independence by 60, and there is headroom up to roughly $410K. That answer comes from a Monte Carlo simulation — thousands of futures with market crashes, job losses that cluster in downturns, real federal/state/FICA taxes, and the full carrying cost of owning — not from a payment-to-income ratio.

94%of simulated futures reach financial independence by 60
$2,203/moall-in ownership cost, not just the mortgage payment
$73,404cash needed at closing (20% down + costs)
Age 51median future's financial-independence age at this price

Adjust every assumption to match your life →

What the ratio rules can't see

At $200,000 of household income, a $300K purchase means $2,203 per month of true ownership cost — 13.2% of gross income. A classic 28% rule would bless that number and stop there. The simulation keeps going: it checks whether the cash left after housing, taxes, and spending still compounds into enough invested assets — about $2.2M in today's dollars for this household's spending — before age 60, across 1,000 different market histories, including the ones where a crash and a layoff arrive together. 0% of futures at this price end in a forced sale.

The illustrative household — married filing jointly, age 35, $200,000 gross income, $5,800/mo non-housing spending (35% of gross, the planner's default ratio), $100K taxable savings sized to fund closing, $240K pre-tax and $50K Roth retirement balances, saving $38K/yr toward retirement. 20% down at 6.3% for 30 years, a 5% effective state tax, retirement target age 60. Fixed random seed; deterministic. If your numbers differ — they do — use the button above.

Common questions

What does the 94% number actually mean?

The model simulates 1,000 possible 30-year futures — different market returns, home prices, and job-loss timing, drawn from the assumptions listed on this page. In 94% of them, a household like this one that buys at $300,000 still accumulates enough invested assets to retire by 60. It is a property of the scenario, not a guarantee.

What monthly cost does a $300K house really carry?

About $2,203 per month all-in for this scenario: $1,478 of principal and interest at 6.3%, plus property tax, insurance, maintenance, and PMI where applicable — the number a payment calculator shows is only part of it. Cash needed at closing is roughly $73,404.

Is the 28% rule a better guide?

Payment-to-income rules can't see savings rates, taxes, market risk, or your retirement timeline — two households with identical payments can have wildly different odds of staying on track. That's why this page reports simulated outcomes instead. See the guide "Why the 28% rule misleads" for the full argument.

Same salary, different price

Same price, different salary

Or browse every price and salary combination, start from how much house a $200K salary affords, see how your state's taxes move these odds, or read why the 28% rule misleads.